Keir Starmer Resignation Month
16
225Ṁ976
2028
1%
November 2025
5%
December 2025
6%
January 2026
5%
February 2026
4%
March 2026
3%
April 2026
24%
May 2026
2%
June 2026
50%
Other

  • Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on when Starmer formally resigns to the King, regardless of the reason for leaving office. This includes scenarios such as:

    • Labour losing an election

    • Starmer losing a leadership challenge

    • Any other circumstance that results in him leaving Number 10

  • Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if Starmer dies while in office.

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My understanding is that however and whenever Starmer leaves Number 10, it will involve going to see the King and resigning, so this market is intended to cover things like Labour losing an election, Starmer fighting and losing a leadership challenge etc.

@JoshuaWilkes the only thing that has now occurred to me is if Starmer would be able to resign if he lost his seat

Can anyone think of any other edge cases?

N/A if he dies.

Other or n/a if no resignation?

What happens if he is challenged, accepts the challenge and runs in a leadership election and loses? Does that count as a resignation, and what specific event in the process will count as the timing of the resignation?

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