Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer resigns from his position as Leader of the Labour Party before January 1, 2026. Official confirmation of his resignation must be reported by reputable news organizations such as the BBC or The Guardian. If no such resignation is reported by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Keir Starmer has been the Leader of the Labour Party since April 2020. As of June 2025, he continues to serve in this role. The next UK general election is scheduled for May 2026, and Starmer has expressed his intention to lead the party into that election. There have been no public indications or announcements suggesting his intention to resign before the end of 2025.

Considerations

While there are no current indications of an impending resignation, political dynamics can change rapidly. Factors such as internal party pressures, election results, or personal decisions could influence Starmer's tenure. Traders should monitor reputable news sources for any developments regarding his leadership status.

• Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Keir Starmer announces his resignation in 2025 but it is not completed (i.e., successor chosen) until after 2025, the market will resolve No. The market resolves based on when the resignation is actually completed, not when it is announced.