Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term? | Manifold

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

269

10kṀ71k

2029

54%

chance

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Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.

Resolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ150 YES

Imo this should trade higher given the higher implied probability of Democrat House control after 2026 due to recent elections

A similar market is here:

bought Ṁ100 NO

No: this would be a completely stupid and counterproductive thing to do (and of course assumes the dems retake the house in 2026).

Yes: the dems never learn from their mistakes.

@traders just upgraded to Premium!

opened a Ṁ990 YES at 33% order

@MattP getting a decent amount of action - I think the trader pool will probably be a decent enough source of liquidity at this point. Pulling down to M5000 subsidy (halfway between Plus and Premium).

/mattyb/will-the-house-of-representatives-b

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