Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
15
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Dec 31
17%
OpenAI
34%
Anthropic
41%
Google
8%
Other

LMSYS released a new leaderboard for ranking ai-models based on their web dev skills. It is super fun to play around with. Give it a shot here.

  • Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may be resolved approximately 18 days early (around mid-December 2025) due to the leaderboard being sunset before the original close date.

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@Soli It seems this leaderboard will be sunset before the market closes

@SqrtMinusOne i think it is fine, we are almost at the end of the year anyways. @traders any objections to resolving the market ~18 days earlier?

@Soli i would just think this should clearly resolve to https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/webdev which is clearly meant to be where that leaderboard is moved for consistency around their leaderboard location conventions

@Bayesian makes even more sense, let's do this (FYI @traders )

@Soli That's a different dashboard with a different methodology though. The order is very different :P

@SqrtMinusOne hmmm good point, @Bayesian do you have a counter to this?

good point tbh. I checked the models that were in both leaderboards:

in common:

  1. opus-4-1

  2. sonnet-4-5-thinking

  3. gemini-2.5-pro

  4. minimax-m2

  5. glm-4.6

  6. sonnet-4-5

  7. qwen3-coder

  8. haiku-4-5

  9. grok-code-fast-1

Order in the old version

123456789

Order in the new version

216547839

one is a good proxy of the other, but not perfect and sometimes pretty bad (gemini 2.5 pro)

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