Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
9
200Ṁ425
Dec 31
88%
chance
19

Currently, Lmarena is still a popular benchmark, but there have been accusations of companies (Meta) gaming the rankings. Resolves subjectively on if I (or the mods, if I don't resolve this) think Lmarena is still widely cited and referenced as a general benchmark for LLM text prompt quality and performance. Resolves NO if other benchmarks become more popular.

  • Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator indicates they would currently resolve YES based on:

    • Google Trends data for Lmarena

    • Their perception of Lmarena's popularity and level of trust

This provides insight into how the subjective resolution criteria will be evaluated.

  • Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is considering resolving this market through a poll instead of their own subjective judgment. This would represent a change from the original resolution method stated in the description.

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@traders still relevant imo, also do people want this to be resolved through poll instead

As an update, I would resolve this YES if the market ended now, just based on the Google Trends and my perception of Lmarena's popularity and level of trust

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11x6yqz1wf&hl=en

if anyone wants to bet against, ping me for better liquidity!

@Bayesian I added some liquidity too

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