Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
9
100Ṁ3302026
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background

Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if a model from a Chinese labs is listed at the top of the text leaderboard according to the Default sort at any point from now (Oct 23 2025) until EOY 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
88% chance
Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
5% chance
Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?
5% chance
What organization will have the top OPEN model on the Text leaderboard on LMArena at end of 2025?
Will Google remain no.1 on lmarena until EOY 2026?
35% chance
Will Moonshot top the lmarena leaderboard by EOY?
7% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025?
7% chance
Will china have a top model in the next two years
67% chance
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
93% chance


